讲座信息
讲座题目：The Wall's impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics using Repeated Cross Sections
（约旦河西岸墙效应：基于贝叶斯方法的贫困动态重复面板分析）
主讲人： Michel Lubrano 教授
讲座时间：2016年4月8日上午9:30
讲座地点：经济学院第一会议室
Abstract
In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied Palestinian territories of the West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model explaining poverty as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. We propose in this paper a dynamic model explaining poverty persistence and poverty entry probabilities. As the only available data are repeated cross sections, we propose a Bayesian approach based on latent variables to simulate a pseudo panel. We explain for two periods the income to needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. The impact of the wall is measured through a third conditional regression model for the second period which includes state variables from the previous period. Conditional probabilities of poverty persistence and poverty entry are compared to the same marginal probabilities. The wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 59 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.
主讲人简介
Michel Lubrano，艾克斯马赛大学（Aix-Marseille University）-艾克斯马赛数量经济研究所教授。Michel Lubrano教授于法国图卢兹大学获计量经济学博士，师从Jean-Jacques Laffont教授，在Review of Economic Studies、 Journal of Econometrics等国际顶级期刊发表诸多论文。主要研究领域：Bayesian econometrics, Bayesian computations, econometrics of inequality and poverty, financial econometrics, empirical models of the labour market, happiness economics。
讲座题目：The Wall's impact in the Occupied West Bank: A Bayesian Approach to Poverty Dynamics using Repeated Cross Sections
（约旦河西岸墙效应：基于贝叶斯方法的贫困动态重复面板分析）
主讲人： Michel Lubrano 教授
讲座时间：2016年4月8日上午9:30
讲座地点：经济学院第一会议室
Abstract
In 2002, the Israeli government decided to build a wall inside the occupied Palestinian territories of the West Bank. The wall had a marked effect on the access to land and water resources as well as to the Israeli labour market. It is difficult to include the effect of the wall in an econometric model explaining poverty as the wall was built in the richer region of the West Bank. We propose in this paper a dynamic model explaining poverty persistence and poverty entry probabilities. As the only available data are repeated cross sections, we propose a Bayesian approach based on latent variables to simulate a pseudo panel. We explain for two periods the income to needs ratio as a function of time invariant exogenous variables. The impact of the wall is measured through a third conditional regression model for the second period which includes state variables from the previous period. Conditional probabilities of poverty persistence and poverty entry are compared to the same marginal probabilities. The wall has increased the probability of poverty persistence by 59 percentage points and the probability of poverty entry by 18 percentage points.
主讲人简介
Michel Lubrano，艾克斯马赛大学（Aix-Marseille University）-艾克斯马赛数量经济研究所教授。Michel Lubrano教授于法国图卢兹大学获计量经济学博士，师从Jean-Jacques Laffont教授，在Review of Economic Studies、 Journal of Econometrics等国际顶级期刊发表诸多论文。主要研究领域：Bayesian econometrics, Bayesian computations, econometrics of inequality and poverty, financial econometrics, empirical models of the labour market, happiness economics。
